The Following Article is from the Winter 2010 Newsletter
We have gotten many calls over the last few years about “timing the market.” In stock market parlance, it is referred to as “catching the falling knife!” As they say, “Prediction is difficult especially about the future.” The following is an overview perspective of what has happened in the last few years and how it relates to our current Westside housing market, especially in north Santa Monica.
Home values have dropped significantly in many of our national market places, from 20-50+%. Here are some of the statistics for our Westside neighborhoods:
Brentwood home values are down 22% from their peak in 2006 with the number of sales down from 329 sales in 2005 to 182 sales in 2008. In 2009 the number of sales increased to 244.
Pacific Palisades home values are down 30% from their peak in 2007 with the number of sales down from 335 sales in 2005 to a low of 184 sales in 2009.
Santa Monica’s 90402 home values are down 19% from their peak in 2006 with the number of sales down from 172 sales in 2003 to a low of 78 sales in 2009.
The rest of Santa Monica, 90401, 90404, 90405, home values are down 11 % from their peak in 2007 with an uptick in values over the last four months. The number of homes sold is down from 149 sales in 2005 to a low of 79 sales in 2008, with 88 sales in 2009.
The most important indicator in value trending is the available inventory for sale at any point in time. The Westside markets are experiencing a reduction in inventory (especially saleable inventory). The first six months of 2009 saw a substantially reduced number of sales especially north of Montana. Starting in May that trend shifted as values reached a point where many buyers that had been sitting on the sidelines decided to jump in. Many of the Westside markets are down 30-35% in inventory. North of Montana is leading the pack with a reduction in inventory from 57 listing in the spring to 13 currently, a whopping 77%!
What does all this mean if you are thinking about selling your home in the next 12 months or if you were one of those who tested the market with little success over the last two years? Regardless of what the future holds, right now is a great time to sell your home, if you are willing to sell it at market value. The values for the moment are holding steady. The inventory of homes for sale (your competition) is at a two year low. There is speculation about millions of foreclosures that are being held off the market which could affect inventory and prices in the near term, in some areas. The more exclusive areas are not likely to be affected by the foreclosure market but we are getting more calls from people wanting to reduce their debt load with slower businesses. Lastly, the attrition of real estate agents has left many of the most experienced agents for buyers and sellers from which to choose. This can be especially important now, dealing with the difficult task of managing seller and buyer expectations and all the instability in the financial and mortgage marketplace.
We have been in business for over 31 years and have experienced three of these down cycles. If you are looking for the most experienced agents to help with your home sale or home purchase call us now for a confidential appointment to discuss your needs.