Numbers of Sales Will Rise
Year-over-year, annualized home sales fell 7.3% in 2023, down from 4.12 million in November 2022. Nationwide US home sales may only see a modest uptick in 2024 over 2023's long-term low. I see this rising around 15%. (Hopefully more as rates come down and unlock 'low-rate-addiction')
Rates Will Come Down
I see rates coming down - continuing the trend that started in late 2023 - and by year-end possibly dipping below 6%, maybe even closer to 5% based on what the economy is doing, remember it’s an election year! Shorter term rates may dip lower.
New Construction Will Increase
There will be a shift away from the construction of rentals as rent pricing drops in areas. Single-family and condo housing construction starts in 2024 should increase after declines in 2022 and 2023. The herd all ran into rentals, and this could reverse. Conversions of commercial properties will pick up.
Remodeling Will Increase
The average US home is about 40 years (most of our local Santa Monica houses are 100 years old) and require work, lots of work at times. In this lies opportunity for buyers and bankers who create products to help buyers buy and renovate. COMPASS Concierge will continue to be an invaluable asset to sellers.
More Upzoning
Cities will make major revisions to their zoning laws and approval processes to speed up construction and reduce costs. These areas are bound to fare well economically and attract businesses. Those that don't, won't.
Prices Will Remain Flat
Pricing will vary considerably from area to area, building to building, especially as homes next to each other age and some are gut renovated, partially renovated or decaying. Each will be valued entirely differently. Brand new homes will continue to sell for a large premium.
More Boxy Architecture
A multitude of styles will continue anywhere from very traditional to ultra-modern, but the more expensive real estate may seek the safety of more classic styling that is removed from 'fashion/trending'.
Lawsuits Will Continue
The profession will be in limbo for a while as multiple suits and appeals are filed. Lawmakers might seek opportunities to appear as 'white knights' for the consumer by imposing new restrictions to bring transaction costs down. Reality will prevail ultimately, as everyone is reminded/educated of what exactly it takes to deliver professional real estate advisory and brokerage services.
A.I.
Those with a headstart on AI - like COMPASS - will harness its benefits and negate its negative aspects. Others have lots of catching up to do and by not having built-in AI systems of their own risk gifting their knowledge and skills to other for-profit entities. The brokerage profession is rather good at doing this, regrettably!
Less Agents
Many smaller brokerages confronted with rising expenses, legal bills and lack of scale will be compelled to consolidate or drown. Hobby agents who are not fully engaged and/or professional may become an endangered species headed for extinction, fast!
Did you hear the bad news? Sweet Lady Janes just closed all locations as of January 1st! The closure certainly comes as a surprise since the Montana Avenue location just completed a remodel! Most shocking is that (apparently) employees only found out the night before via Instagram!
In Other 90402 Real Estate News
There Are 13 Active Listings With Just One New Listings Since My Last DIRT Update
- 835 San Vicente Blvd - Listed for $23,500,000. This was last purchased in July of 2022 when it was brand new for $19.5M.It is a whopping 12,400 sq. ft. with AI smart home features, gym, two showcase garages, Himalayan salt wet/dry sauna, two elevators, a zero-edge pool and koi pond.
There Are Five Under Contract in Escrow
- 439 16th Street - Listed for $5,995,000.
- 322 17th Street - Listed for $4,395,000.
- 450 15th Street - Listed for $3,299,000.
- 322 23rd Street - Listed for $6,995,000.
- 210 Georgina Avenue - Listed for $5,950,000.
One Has Sold/Closed Escrow
- 449 17th Street - Sold for $6,564,744. Originally listed for $6,895,000.
